Latest forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization indicated that there was an 80 per cent likelihood that
The chance of such spikes in temperature – currently at 80 per cent – has been rising steadily since 2015, when such a probalility was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 20 per cent chance of surpassing the limit, and this increased to a 66 per cent chance between 2023 and 2027.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries agreed to keep long-term global average surface temperature well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C by the end of this century. The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing far more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and every fraction of a degree of warming matters.
According to WMO’s report, for example, arctic warming over the next five extended winters –November to March – relative to the average of the 1991-2020 period, is predicted to be more than three times as large as the warming in global mean temperature.
Predictions for March 2024-2028 suggest further reductions in sea-ice concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk.